TOI Correspondent from Washington: US Vice President JD Vance is arriving in Pakistan on Saturday morning for what is being billed as a concerted diplomatic push to corral Iran and contain a widening conflict that has not gone according to Washington’s script. With a number of US analysts characterising the Trump-and-Netanyahu-led war on Iran as militarily and tactically brilliant but strategically and diplomatically dumb, Vance is tasked with salvaging US gains from a war it has won while losing the peace as Tehran has dug in its heels despite being militarily pulverised. On the eve of his departure, the US veep struck a calibrated tone that blended caution with conditional engagement. “If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand,” he said. “If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.” It was a formulation that reflected Vance’s long-standing scepticism of war – important for his own political future – even as it signalled firmness in an attempt to walk the fine line between deterrence and diplomacy.President Trump, however, offered a characteristically cryptic framing, posting on social media that the unfolding situation represented the “most powerful reset in the world.” The White House, seeking to impose coherence, added that Trump was “optimistic that a deal can be reached that can lead to lasting peace in the Middle East,” citing his “proven track record” of securing agreements that “put America first.”Iran, however, has set preconditions that complicate the mission. The speaker of Iran’s parliament has stated that Tehran will not begin negotiations in Pakistan unless two demands are met: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked financial assets, neither of which the US is ready to concede as yet. Even as diplomacy gathers pace, tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s reported moves to demand payments from some transiting vessels—widely seen as violating international maritime norms—have spooked the world. Washington has demanded that such practices cease immediately, framing them as a threat to global commerce and freedom of navigation. Yet enforcement remains a complex question, particularly as the US seeks to avoid further military entanglement while maintaining credibility.Vance’s central role in this mission is perhaps the most revealing aspect of the current moment. Traditionally, such high-stakes diplomacy would be led by the Secretary of State—currently Marco Rubio. Instead, Trump has turned to his vice president, effectively sidelining the country’s top diplomat. The move also contrasts sharply with the posture of defence secretary Pete Hegseth, whose advocacy of a “warrior ethos” has shaped the administration’s military response. Another sardonic comment coming from Washington’s warmongering commentariat: “Trump and Hegseth have won the war and are sending Vance to Pakistan to negotiate our terms of surrender.”While exaggerated, such sentiments reflect a growing perception that the administration’s military successes have not been converted into strategic gains—and that Vance is being tasked with resolving a conflict whose political endgame remains unclear. Trump has repeatedly suggested that Washington is engaging with a more “receptive” faction within Iran’s negotiating apparatus, hinting at possible cracks between pragmatists and hardliners. However, regional analysts see little evidence of such divisions, viewing the claim as wishful thinking—or an attempt to sow discord within Iran’s leadership.The political context surrounding Vance’s mission is equally challenging. Public appetite for escalation is limited in the US, and anti-war sentiment is no longer confined to progressive circles. Within Trump’s own MAGA base, a growing number of voices—including influential commentators—have expressed unease about the trajectory of the conflict, irking the President. This emerging scepticism has created an unusual convergence, with segments of both the right and left questioning the costs of continued engagement.Vance, who has consistently warned against “forever wars,” is uniquely positioned to channel this mood — and enhance his political future. His involvement also signals an acknowledgement by the White House that domestic political constraints are beginning to shape foreign policy decisions as much as battlefield dynamics.
